Royal LePage Expects GTA Home Prices to Slip 2% by Year-End: What It Means

Royal LePage's latest House Price Survey and Market Forecast, released October 15, 2026, says the Greater Toronto Area is one of only two major Canadian regions where home prices are expected to keep sliding through year-end. The firm forecasts the GTA aggregate home price will be 2.0% lower in the fourth quarter of 2026 than a year earlier: about $1,062,614, versus $1,084,300 in Q4 2025. Greater Vancouver is the other, at -4.5%. Nationally, Royal LePage now expects a 1.0% gain, a forecast it revised downward after a slower-than-expected third quarter.

The Toronto Star covered the report the same day. Here is what sits under the headline, and what it means for GTA buyers, sellers, and owners heading into winter.

What did Royal LePage forecast for GTA home prices?

The Royal LePage 2026 Market Survey Forecast compares each region's Q4 2025 actual aggregate price with its Q4 2026 forecast:

• Greater Toronto Area: $1,062,614 forecast, down 2.0% year over year
• Greater Vancouver: $1,125,754 forecast, down 4.5%
• National: $815,272 forecast, up 1.0%
• Ottawa: up 3.0%, and Halifax up 4.0%, the largest forecast gain in the table

Even after the dip, the Star notes the Toronto and Vancouver areas are still forecast to carry the highest aggregate prices in the country, with Ottawa next at just under $800,000. A 2% move is a slow drift, not a crash.

Where are GTA home prices right now?

According to Royal LePage's GTA market report, the third quarter of 2026 looked like this:

• GTA aggregate price: $1,073,100, down 3.7% year over year and 2.6% from Q2
• GTA detached median: $1,364,400, down 2.8%
• GTA condo median: $641,500, down 4.1%
• Canada aggregate: $810,000, down 0.8% year over year and 0.6% from Q2

One note before comparing headlines: Royal LePage's aggregate price is a weighted average of median prices across housing types, and it includes both resale and new build data from RPS Real Property Solutions. It will not line up exactly with TRREB's monthly figures, which we broke down in our TRREB September 2026 Market Watch post. Both point the same way: softer than last year.

Why is the City of Toronto telling a different story than the suburbs?

Inside the city, the picture splits by property type. Toronto's aggregate price fell only 0.5% year over year to $1,071,500, but it dropped 4.4% from the second quarter. The detached median fell 5.9% to $1,457,300, while the condo median was essentially flat, up 0.4% to $647,400.

Across the 905, the Q3 composite table shows how uneven the region is year over year:

• Steeper declines: Oshawa (-12.2%), Milton (-9.6%), Ajax (-7.7%), Brampton (-4.6%), Richmond Hill (-2.9%)
• Close to flat: Mississauga (-0.6%), Oakville (-0.3%)
• Up year over year: Whitby (+4.6%), Markham (+1.3%), Vaughan (+1.2%)

Condos are where some suburban markets are weakest. Milton's condo median fell 20.4%, Markham's 9.5%, and Vaughan's 9.2%. Shawn Zigelstein of Royal LePage Signature Realty described "a stark divide in buyer behaviour," with detached homes, semis, and townhouses still in high demand while condo activity stays soft.

Medians shift with the mix of what sells in a quarter, so a flat city condo median does not mean every building is holding value. Comp the exact building and unit type.

Why are GTA buyers still waiting?

In the full national release, Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper pointed to three pressures:

• Trade uncertainty. Canada-U.S. talks broke down on August 21, and the U.S. announced a 50% tariff on billions of dollars in Canadian goods the following day.
• Borrowing costs. The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% for the past year, but economists expect increases ahead. Soper expects a hold through 2026, with a hike more likely in early 2027. The Bank's two remaining 2026 announcements are October 28 and December 9.
• Politics. Municipal elections are underway, and TRREB notes housing affordability is a defining issue ahead of the October 26 municipal election across the GTA.

Zigelstein told the Star that lower immigration and falling rents also make it easier for Toronto-area buyers to stay on the sidelines. We covered that rent picture in Toronto Asking Rents Hit Lowest September Level Since 2021.

What does this mean for GTA buyers?

1. Use the leverage. Soper says buyers today have "more time, more choice and greater negotiating power." Ask for conditions, closing flexibility, and price room, especially on condos.
2. Do not wait for a bottom call. The forecast is a modest 2.0% annual decline, and Royal LePage notes rising bond yields are putting upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates. Run the numbers on payment, not price alone.
3. Expect competition for family homes. Well-located detached, semi, and townhouse listings still draw demand. Be pre-approved before you tour.
4. Get a rate hold in place ahead of the October 28 and December 9 Bank of Canada dates.

What does this mean for GTA sellers?

Price to this quarter, not last spring. With the city's aggregate price down 4.4% from Q2 and the detached median down 5.9% from a year ago, an aspirational list price is more likely to sit. Zigelstein expects activity to improve modestly through the final months of the year and into next spring as buyers respond to tighter inventory, but he also expects price growth to stay modest and uneven by segment.

If you own a detached, semi, or townhouse in a strong family pocket, you are selling into the segment with the deepest buyer pool. If you own a condo, especially in a 905 market with double-digit condo declines, sharp pricing and presentation matter more than timing.

What about owners facing a mortgage renewal?

Royal LePage's 2026 Mortgage Renewal Survey found 38% of Canadians with a mortgage on their primary residence expect their payment to rise at renewal, and 35% feel more anxious about it than last time. In Toronto, that anxiety figure rises to 39%, and it is highest among owners who last renewed in 2021 or 2022. Soper noted most of those borrowers qualified under a stress test at rates of five per cent or higher. Start the renewal conversation early, and know your home's current value before you decide whether to stay, refinance, or sell.

Frequently asked questions

Will GTA home prices keep falling in 2026?
Royal LePage forecasts the GTA aggregate home price will be 2.0% lower in Q4 2026 than in Q4 2025, about $1,062,614. That is a modest decline, and the firm expects sales to pick up slowly.

Are Toronto condos or houses falling faster?
Across the GTA, the condo median fell 4.1% year over year in Q3, versus 2.8% for detached homes. Inside the City of Toronto it flipped: detached fell 5.9% while the condo median rose 0.4%.

What could change the forecast?
Royal LePage flags trade tensions with the U.S., the direction of interest rates (with Bank of Canada decisions on October 28 and December 9), and political uncertainty, including this fall's municipal elections.

How do I get a neighbourhood-level read from The Starke Group?
Contact us through our Connect page, call (416) 233-2071, or visit 613 King Street West.

Want to know what this forecast means for your street?

The Starke Group, led by Brett Starke and powered by RARE Real Estate Inc., helps buyers use today's leverage, sellers price to the current quarter, and owners plan around a renewal with real comps, not headlines. Connect with The Starke Group, call (416) 233-2071, or drop by our King West office at 613 King Street West. We will put Royal LePage's numbers next to the buildings and neighbourhoods you actually care about.