Investors Bought 45% of New Toronto Condos in Q3: What It Means for Buyers

Investment groups bought 339 brand-new condos in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in the third quarter of 2026, or 45% of all new condo sales, according to Urbanation's Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey released October 19. They paid an average of $763 per square foot, a 40% discount to the original selling prices in the same buildings. Individual buyers paid about $1,045 per square foot for new units. The short answer: bulk buyers are clearing the glut of finished, unsold condos, but they are buying at prices most end users cannot negotiate, while the pre-construction pipeline that feeds future supply has nearly stopped.

The Toronto Star, The Globe and Mail, and the Financial Post all covered the report. Here is what it means for Toronto condo buyers, sellers, and owners.

What did Urbanation's Q3 2026 condo report find?

From the Urbanation release:

• New condo sales: 760 units, double the same quarter last year and the second straight quarter of annual growth.
• Still historically weak: Q3 sales were 78% below the 10-year average for third quarters.
• Bulk sales: 339 units bought by investment groups, 45% of all new condo sales.
• Completed buildings: a record 648 units sold in finished buildings, a record 85% share of new sales.
• Pre-construction: just 60 units sold, down 61%, the 12th straight quarter of annual declines.

The Star reports bulk deals made up 26% of new condo sales in the second quarter, so the share nearly doubled in three months, and the average discount widened from 36% to 40%.

Who are the bulk condo buyers, and why are developers selling at a discount?

Urbanation president Shaun Hildebrand told the Financial Post the buyers are private real estate investment firms and funds acquiring completed condos to run as long-term rentals. He pointed to High Art Capital's provincially backed program targeting about 2,200 rental homes and Jesta Group's $500-million program targeting more than 1,000 units. The Globe reports High Art paid $22.3 million for 43 units at Line 5 in midtown, about $518,000 per unit, which it notes is close to the typical resale condo price in the region.

Developers are motivated. Completed and unsold inventory hit a record 5,485 units in Q2. As John Pasalis of Realosophy Realty put it to the Financial Post, developers keep paying condo fees and financing costs on unsold finished units: "It costs them to wait for buyers."

Is a 40% discount really 40% below market value?

Not quite, and this is the most important nuance in the story. The 40% is measured against original selling prices, most of which were set in 2021 and 2022 near the market peak. Hildebrand told the Star that resale condo prices have fallen close to 30% since then. Compared with today's market, the Financial Post reports bulk buyers paid about 12% less than the $866 per square foot averaged by resale units in recently registered buildings.

So the deal is real, but it is a volume discount on a market that has already reset, not a hidden 40% off for everyone.

Can individual buyers get the same condo discounts?

Usually not. Asked whether individuals could negotiate the discounts investment groups get on dozens of units, Pasalis told the Financial Post it was "probably unlikely," adding that it "makes the market a little bit unfair to end users today."

That said, the pricing gap is still useful information. Urbanation says average asking prices for completed, unsold new condos were $1,157 per square foot in Q3, down 4% from a year ago and 20% below the Q2 2023 peak of $1,446, while new units that actually sold (excluding bulk and luxury deals) averaged $1,045. Buyers who know a building's recent trades have room to negotiate.

What is happening to Toronto resale condo prices?

Urbanation's resale numbers show the market is still soft but steadier, and the core is holding up best:

• GTHA resale condo sales: 3,843 units, down 6% year over year
• Active listings: 7,020, down 11%
• Average resale price: $724 per square foot, down 5.7%, the smallest annual decline in six quarters
• Former City of Toronto: $905 per square foot, down only 2.8%, versus declines of 7.9% in the outer 416 and 9.3% in the 905

On the rental side, Pasalis wrote on Move Smartly that 5,978 condos were listed for rent across the Toronto area at the end of September, down 29% from a year earlier, and the median condo rent was $2,500, flat year over year. He expects rents to start rising again next year if new rental listings keep falling. That is a shift from the picture in our post on asking rents hitting their lowest September level since 2021.

Why does the pre-construction slump matter for future supply?

Pre-construction sales finance new towers, and they have nearly vanished. Urbanation reports just 381 condo units started construction in Q3, in a single project, bringing 2026 starts to 2,696 units, 82% below the 10-year average. Units under construction fell 38% to 35,920, the lowest since early 2012. Scheduled completions drop from 20,868 this year to 15,825 in 2027, 12,065 in 2028, and 4,213 in 2029. Hildebrand says this sets the market up "for a significant shortage by the end of the decade." We first flagged the starts collapse in Toronto Condo Starts Collapse to 156 Units in H1 2026.

Urbanation also notes that Ontario's enhanced HST rebate requires rental units to be substantially completed by December 31, 2029, two years earlier than for owner-occupiers, which most new high-rise projects cannot meet. That effectively excludes pre-construction investors and helps explain why buying has shifted to finished buildings.

What does this mean for Toronto condo buyers?

1. Look at finished, unsold inventory. Developers carrying completed units have costs to cover. The Globe reports eligible buyers can get up to a $130,000 HST rebate on new homes priced up to $1.5 million until the end of March 2027. Confirm your eligibility with your lawyer before you count on it.
2. Negotiate from data, not headlines. Compare the asking price with recent resale trades in the same building, not with the 40% bulk figure.
3. Weigh the timing. Hildebrand told the Financial Post that long-term investors "typically" move in "when pricing is near a floor," and new condo sales rose 14% even excluding bulk deals. Waiting for a deeper drop is a bet, not a plan.

What does this mean for condo sellers and investors?

Resale sellers are competing with developers willing to cut prices to clear inventory, so price to recent trades in your building and present the unit well. Downtown sellers have the strongest position, with former City of Toronto resale prices down only 2.8%, while 905 owners face a softer market. Investors should note the rental market is tightening. If rents rise next year as Pasalis expects, holding may make more sense than selling into a discounted market.

Frequently asked questions

What share of new Toronto condo sales went to bulk buyers in Q3 2026?
Investment groups bought 339 of 760 new condo sales in the GTHA, or 45%, according to Urbanation. That was up from 26% in Q2, as reported by the Toronto Star.

Are Toronto condo prices 40% lower now?
No. The 40% bulk discount is measured against original 2021 and 2022 selling prices. Resale condo prices had already fallen close to 30% since then, and bulk buyers paid about 12% less than recent resale trades in newly registered buildings.

Will Toronto run short of new condos?
Urbanation expects completions to fall to 4,213 units in 2029 and warns of a significant shortage by the end of the decade, because pre-construction sales and starts are at historic lows.

How can I find out what a specific building is worth today?
Reach The Starke Group through our Connect page, call (416) 233-2071, or visit us at 613 King Street West.

Want a building-by-building read on today's condo market?

The Starke Group, led by Brett Starke and powered by RARE Real Estate Inc., helps Toronto buyers find real value in finished and resale condos and helps owners price against what is actually trading. Connect with The Starke Group, call (416) 233-2071, or drop by our King West office at 613 King Street West. We will put Urbanation's numbers next to the buildings you care about.